http://www.social-bookmarking.net/news/norton-scientific-scam-%7C-tumblr/#
In this piece Roger Bate, Donald Roberts and Richard Tren accuse the UN of "Scientific Fraud against DDT". Their Accusation is based on an Opinion paper byRoberts and Tren published in Research and Reports in Tropical Medicine. So let's look at their paper and see where the "Scientific Fraud" is.
Roberts and Tren's key argument is that reductions in malaria in the Americas were not the result of Global Environmental Facility interventions but were caused by increased use of antimalarial drugs. In their own words:
"However, their successes were not a result of the interventions we describe as components of the GEF project. Their successes were mostly a result of wide distributions of antimalarial drugs to suppress malaria (see Table 1). Data in the Table reveal trends of increased numbers of antimalarial pills distributed per diagnosed case and decreased numbers of cases. Equally obvious is the decreased numbers of pills distributed per diagnosed case, and increased numbers of cases in two countries (Costa Rica and Panama)."
So their argument rests on table 1. Here's table 1.
Country pills/case pills/case % change in % change in 1990 in 2004 pills/case in cases Mexico 235 2566 1092 -1307 Belize 21 82 390 -287 Costa Rica 653 100 -653 112 El Salvador 34 22802 67064 -8276 Guatemala 38 54 142 -144 Honduras 30 51 170 -338 Nicaragua 279 1319 473 -519 Panama 202 140 -144 1337
The first thing that leaps out at you is that the table shows reductions of more than 100%, which is impossible. Panama cannot have experienced a decrease of 144% in pills/case. According to the two previous columns in the table there was a decrease from 202 to 140, which is a 31% reduction, not 144%. 202/140 is 144%, but it is not the case that the column contains the ratio of pill/case in 1990 divided by pills/case in 2004 (ie, is just labelled wrongly), because then the number for Guatemala would be 70%, not the 142% shown in the table. The column appears to show the bigger number divided by the smaller. That is, all the percent changes in that column are calculated incorrectly and the increases and decrease were calculated differently.
Peter Snowden is hoping to cash in on a rare home ground advantage when feature racing heads to Warwick Farm for the next two Saturdays.
The southwestern Sydney racetrack will play host to its feature Group One Chipping Norton Stakes day on Saturday, while Saturday week's Randwick Guineas meeting has been transferred to Warwick Farm this year."It's definitely an advantage, racing on your home track is always an advantage," Snowden said after overseeing trackwork on Thursday.
"To get these next two meetings here is a big plus for us."
Snowden doesn't have a Chipping Norton runner but has chances in Saturday's other feature races with Parables (Surround Stakes), Pinwheel (Liverpool City Cup), Brasileira (Wiggle Quality) and Anise (Clarry Conners Plate).
Snowden holds Anise, a $600,000 yearling purchase, in high regard but needs to see the two-year-old filly do it again in the Clarry Conners Plate (1100m) to confirm feature race plans.
The trainer already has dominant Golden Slipper favourite Sepoy waiting in the wings at Darley's new Agnes Banks property following his explosive Blue Diamond win last Saturday.
Sepoy has continued to step up and surprise Snowden, elevating him to the top of the pile among this season's juveniles.
"That's racing," Snowden says.
"Every good horse, they don't just have it written on their forehead when they are born. It's a natural progression and some do it and some don't.
"Some promise you the world and give you an Atlas. They come in all shapes and sizes but it's a pleasant surprise when you get one like him (Sepoy).
"This filly (Anise) has always promised a bit and she may not deliver what she's been promising, and that's what racing is all about.
"But where she's at at the moment I'm happy with. Her work has been good, she has trialled well and she should be competitive on Saturday."
Anise won her only start in November by 1-3/4 lengths over Saramenha who had put together two straight city wins prior to that race.
Later in the day Parables will be out to add the Group Two Surround Stakes to her win in the Group Three Silver Shadow Stakes at Warwick Farm last August.
The Lonhro filly finished off from back in the field for third to Obsequious in the Light Fingers Stakes (1200m) first-up on February 12.
"Her first-up run was good, the 1400 metres second-up is perfect for her and on her home track is a big plus as well," Snowden said.
"She'll run well."
Consistent sprinter Pinwheel is the second favourite for the Group Three Liverpool City Cup (1300m).
Pinwheel, who has finished in the top two in 15 of his 17 starts, won the Canterbury Classic (1100m) first-up and then chased home Sister Madly when second in the Group Three Southern Cross Stakes (1200m) on February 12.
"He's drawn okay (nine) in a tough race and has plenty of weight (57.5kg) but he's an ultra-consistent horse and no doubt he'll run well again," Snowden said.